Monday, September 4, 2017

An Eye on Irma

GFS ensembles for Irma, 12Z 9/3/2017

Hurricane season means keeping a sharp watch eastward, in case anything is developing. 

These early tracks show Irma right in my back yard, or maybe my front yard.

The good news is that if she comes from the south, as predicted, she'll have been over land for a long distance by the time she arrives, which means she'll be a rain event by then, and no longer a hurricane. That's some consolation.

I'd never been concerned about flooding before Harvey hit Texas, but now I'm thinking about that, too.

The bad news is that one model predicts 3.8 feet of water in my neighborhood if we have a Texas-sized rain event. And all indications are that Irma will be a massively powerful storm by the time she arrives. Ugh.

Let's hope she continues to come in low instead of steaming in from the east as a direct hit at full power. If that scenario develops I will be hitting the road early for a safer location. Being 30 miles from the coast isn't much consolation when the subject is hurricane force winds and rain. 

But you never know what a hurricane will do -- sometimes they don't follow the usual patterns -- so watching the weather is very much in my future these days.

That, and packing the evacuation kit, and checking in with friends in other cities who might have a spare bedroom, and stocking up on water, peanut butter, and other nonperishables.

Being a camper comes in handy right about now, because the prospect of being without electricity isn't all that daunting.   

My task now is to be ready for anything -- staying or going --and having enough information to make an early decision. 

Welcome to September!  

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